Intelligence

Bhutto's death rocks Pakistan

Bhutto's death rocks Pakistan | csmonitor.com

The assassination of the former prime minister raises questions about the Musharraf government's security measures. By Shahan Mufti | Contributor to The Christian Science Monitor and Mark Sappenfield | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN; AND NEW DELHI The assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto by a suicide bomber Thursday threatens to bring to a halt Pakistan's stuttering steps toward democracy.

It is the starkest evidence yet that the forces aligned against law and order, once contained to the remote border region
with Afghanistan, are now spilling into the heart of Pakistan, disrupting the country's ability to function.

The
death of Ms. Bhutto, one of Pakistan's most beloved leaders and head of
its largest political party, is an emotional event for many. Rioting
broke out in several cities late Thursday night. The unrest could lead
to the declaration of martial law, experts say, and the postponement of
parliamentary elections scheduled for Jan. 8, 2008.

It is the sort of instability that Western
nations had sought to avoid by persuading President Pervez Musharraf to
allow Bhutto back into the country – hoping her vows to tackle
terrorism would help in the fight against Taliban militants and put
Pakistan on a more moderate path. Now, they appear to have made her a
target. Her death marks a moment of decision for Pakistan's leaders and
lays bare the terrorists' capabilities.

"Her death in such a manner – when the
government had taken responsibility for her security – tells a lot
about the situation in Pakistan," says Hassan Abbas, a Pakistan expert
at Harvard University in Cambridge, Mass. "What is evident is a
complete lack of command and control."

It brings a close to a year drawn in
persistent, violent turmoil. Details of Bhutto's death – the Muslim
world's first female prime minister – were not yet confirmed at press
time, but reports suggest she was shot before a suicide bomber blew
himself up. The attack took place minutes after she had finished her
address at a large rally in the garrison city of Rawalpindi, near the
capital, Islamabad.

The killing of Bhutto leaves a question
mark over whether elections can go forward. A political field without
her will profoundly affect the larger political dynamic that Mr.
Musharraf has been carefully crafting to remain in power. But more
immediately, the death of one of Pakistan's most prominent political
leaders has shaken the country. "The country has been pushed into
another dark period of uncertainty," says Rasul Baksh Rais, a political
scientist at the Lahore University of Management Sciences.

Riots erupted in Rawalpindi soon after the
news of her death was confirmed. The city has been the site of several
suicide bombings in past months, though most have targeted security
forces. Private television channels also reported riots in major towns
across the country, especially in Sindh, Bhutto's home province.

The magnitude of Bhutto's death obscured another act of political violence Thursday. Four supporters of Bhutto's opposition,
the Pakistan Muslim League–Nawaz (PML-N), were shot dead at a political rally in Islamabad.

"I
think the elections will be canceled," says Ahmed Rashid, a Pakistani
security analyst and author of "Taliban." "We can't have elections when
the country is in this state of violence. We may see the imposition ...
of extraordinary measures like martial law or a state of emergency."

In an interview with the BBC, PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif also hinted that elections could be postponed: "None of us is inclined
to think about the election."

It is unclear who was responsible for the attack, but initial anger turned against Musharraf's government.

Supporters outside the hospital where Bhutto's body was taken chanted "dog, Musharraf, dog," the Associated Press reported.

It
is an instinctive reaction born of generations of mutual mistrust
between Bhutto and the Army, which Musharraf led until last month.
Bhutto's father, also a prime minister, was hanged after being deposed
by one of Pakistan's previous military rulers, Zia ul-Haq.

Certainly, the threat was not unforeseen.
When Bhutto returned from exile in October in a triumphant procession
through Karachi, she narrowly escaped a suicide bombing that left 150
dead. Moreover, Baitullah Mesud, a Taliban commander in Waziristan, had
several times openly threatened her life.

The circumstances of Bhutto's death, and
the failure of security, will be a subject of immense scrutiny. "There
are going to be very big questions asked," says Najmuddin Shaikh, who
served as foreign minister during one of Bhutto's terms as prime
minister.

Bhutto was the only major political figure
whose campaign included a strong stance against extremism. "Benazir
Bhutto may have been killed by terrorists, but the terrorists must not
be allowed to kill democracy in Pakistan," British Prime Minister
Gordon Brown said Thursday. But Dr. Abbas at Harvard predicts "fewer
people will challenge extremism openly."

Bhutto's life and career followed a trail
of tragedy in her political family comparable to that of the Kennedys,
or Gandhis of India. Bhutto died just a few miles from where her father
was hanged. One brother died from poisoning, and another was killed in
a police shootout. Her two tenures as prime minister (1988 and 1993),
neither of which she could complete, were marred by charges of
corruption and fraud. She went into exile after Musharraf came into
power in 1999 before returning in October.

Bhutto declared herself lifetime chairman of the party she inherited from her father. Observers are unsure who might take
over the reins of the party now.

"It may take months for the party to decide their new leader," says Hassan Aksari Rizvi, an independent political scientist
in Lahore. "I don't see how they can contest an election scheduled in a few days without a coherent leadership."

December 28, 2007 at 04:12 PM in Middle East | Permalink | Top of page | Blog Home