Intelligence

India: The Islamist Militant Threat During Rioting

Stratfor

Summary

Violent protests continued Nov. 30 across the Indian state of Maharashtra, home of India's financial hub, Mumbai. While Indian security forces are moving quickly to prevent the protests -- which are being led by thousands of low-caste Hindus -- from spreading, Islamist militants operating in the state could take advantage of the situation to stage an attack and provoke Hindu-Muslim riots while security forces are preoccupied.

Analysis

Violent Hindu riots erupted in the Indian state of Maharashtra late Nov. 29, as thousands of low-caste Hindus (known as Dalits) went on a rampage and burned more than 100 buses and cars, clashed with police and threw stones at vehicles in traffic. Five coaches of the Mumbai-Pune Deccan Queen train were torched by a mob of more than 6,000 Dalits at Ulhasnagar, in Thane district, about 35 miles from Mumbai, disrupting train service between Kalyan and Karaj. As the riots continued Nov. 30, Hindu mobs in Mumbai reportedly blocked roads and forced shops throughout the city to close. Three people have been reported dead and more than 60 injured thus far. More than 1,500 protesters in Ahmedabad have been arrested by police, who fired tear gas and beat back crowds with bamboo sticks. A curfew has been imposed in the town of Nanded, in the Marathwada region, Pimpri, Chinchwad, Negdi and Akurdi in Pune district and the town of Nandurbar. Schools and markets in Mumbai have been shut down and local police have asked the state government to declare a local holiday.

The riots are being led primarily by factions of the Republican Party of India, the main political platform in Maharashtra for low-caste Hindus, who are protesting the alleged Nov. 28 desecration of a statue of Bhimrao Ramji Ambedkar in Kanpur, in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh. Ambedkar is a low-caste Hindu leader and the author of the Indian Constitution, which prohibits caste-based discrimination. The protests in Maharashtra could also spread to Uttar Pradesh, in northern India, where Ambedkar has a strong following. Security forces have been deployed throughout the state, but sources in the area say the situation is extremely tense.

These types of protests have been known to break out spontaneously in India, but Islamist militant groups, such as Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), have been desperately trying to incite communal tensions in recent months by attacking both Hindus and Muslims, particularly in Maharashtra, where Hindu-Muslim strife runs deep. The July railway attacks in Mumbai and the September mosque bombings in Malegaon failed to produce the reaction that Kashmiri militant groups, such as LeT, Al Badr and Jaish-e-Mohammed, had anticipated. The objective of these groups is to provoke riots between Hindus and Muslims across India in order to enflame Muslim anger and revitalize the Kashmir cause.

There is a possibility these groups could take advantage of the current instability to stage an attack in order to further escalate the riots while security forces are preoccupied. Companies operating in Maharashtra should be aware of this threat and are urged to shut down their businesses until the demonstrations are brought under control.

December 2, 2006 at 01:40 AM in Lashkar-e-Taiba | Permalink | Top of page | Blog Home