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Living in fear: dwindling band of Kremlin critics

Telegraph | News | Living in fear: dwindling band of Kremlin critics

By Adrian Blomfield in Moscow
Last Updated: 1:28am GMT 27/11/2006

When the Russian newspaper Kommersant revealed that the son of the country's spy chief had landed a plum job with the state-owned oil giant Rosneft, its editor Vladislav Borodulin might have expected congratulations from his new boss. Instead he got the sack.

Russia's dwindling band of Kremlin critics drew two conclusions from the demise of Mr Borodulin. Firstly, with the acquisition of Russia's most prestigious newspaper by a Kremlin-friendly oligarch, the state's control of the print press was, like the television media before it, now virtually complete.

Secondly, the appointment of 25-year-old Andrei Patrushev, whose father Nikolai runs the FSB, the successor to the KGB, was another example of the power struggle within the Russian hierarchy for control of the country's most lucrative resources before presidential elections in 2008.

It is in the context of those polls, analysts in Moscow argue, that the death of former KGB colonel Alexander Litvinenko must be understood.

A spate of repressive laws, each designed to close off avenues for Kremlin criticism, had led many pundits in Russia to predict that the run-up to the election would be marred by high profile killings and a general rise in lawlessness. Initially dismissed, those pundits are now claiming to have been vindicated.

In the past two months, three prominent figures in the public sphere — including Mr Litvinenko — have been murdered.

When Vladimir Putin came to power in 2000, contract killings were very much the norm in Russia. The chaotic lawlessness allowed to flourish under his predecessor, Boris Yeltsin, meant that business disputes were generally settled in drive-by shootings. Under Mr Putin, Russia has — until now -- been much more stable.

But many critics argue that the way in which he bought short-term stability — primarily by clamping down on democratic institutions and centralising power in the Kremlin -- has created the conditions for potential chaos in the next 18 months.

As government critics have been silenced, the FSB has grown vastly stronger over the past six years.

Senior members of the Putin administration, many of whom share the president's KGB background, also hold dominant and probably highly lucrative positions in the oil and gas sector, much of which is once again under state control. As a result, corruption flourishes.

With Mr Putin constitutionally obliged to step down in 2008, many newly enriched officials have begun to panic, believing that a new man at the Kremlin could sweep them from their posts or — worse — order an investigation into how they acquired their wealth.

Diplomats and analysts say that competing factions within the FSB and the Kremlin are virtually at war as they try to consolidate their wealth and maintain the upper hand in terms of who wields the most authority.

One of the factors contributing to the unease is the uncertainty over Mr Putin's future plans. Although he has stated that he will not change the constitution to stand again, many in powerful positions believe he is the best man to ensure their security.

Various options are being considered, Kremlinologists believe, ranging from Mr Putin re-emerging as a powerful prime minister to his staying on because of an engineered national crisis — possibly a war with Georgia.

In this febrile atmosphere, Kremlin critics say it is not a surprise that assassinations have again become a feature of Russian life. All three of the principal theories surrounding Mr Litvinenko's murder have one thing in common, analysts say.

If the Kremlin is the culprit, the motivation would appear to be to intimidate further those still willing to speak out against the government. Whoever was behind the killing, that seems to be what is happening. Leaders of Russia's tiny opposition have become far more circumspect about what they say in public.

"We are all worried we could be next," said one.

November 27, 2006 at 09:59 AM in KGB | Permalink | Top of page | Blog Home