Intelligence

Will N.Korea Really Launch a Missile?

Digital Chosunilbo (English Edition) : Daily News in English About Korea

A string of reports in the international press point to an imminent test of North Korea's new long-range Taepodong 2 missile, but the South Korean government and military sources say there are no signs that is going to happen. So what is the true state of affairs?

Reuters and the AFP ran reports on Tuesday that said North Korea is preparing to test a ballistic missile that could reach the U.S. and the test could take place next week. Rumors of preparations for a test launch began to surface at the end of last month, and it is assumed that the reports were referring to a test of a Taepodong-type missile. With an estimated radius of 6,700 km, the Taepodong 2 can hit Alaska, and the newer model with a lighter warhead, some say, could have a range of 10,000 km, meaning it could strike the U.S. mainland.

One government official said North Korea “could play the missile test card at any time as a protest against the U.S., Japan, or South Korea." If the North really intends to test-fire the missile, it would need to put the weapon on a 40 m high launch platform and load it with fuel; neither is known to have taken place. Additionally, it would first have to ban civilian ships from the surrounding waters to ensure that there are no accidents and deploy climate radar and tracking stations, sources said.

Intelligence experts are saying it is worth paying close attention to Japan’s movements in regard to the chances of a missile test. Japan is most sensitive to long-range missile launches and will be the first to react if there are actual signs of preparations. Over the last few years, Japan has been the first to report news related to North Korean missile tests, whether short-range or long.

The Japanese press was also the first to break the news last month of Pyongyang’s rumored preparations for a test launch of Taepodong 2 missiles, but now Tokyo is being cautious. Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe said his country was “collecting information on military movements of our neighbor countries and analyzing them, but we don’t have the understanding that a missile test is imminent.”

(englishnews@chosun.com )

June 13, 2006 at 09:07 PM in Japan | Permalink | Top of page | Blog Home