Intelligence

The agenda behind the racist rant

TheStar.com - The agenda behind the racist rant

Dec. 17, 2005. 01:00 AM
MITCH POTTER
MIDDLE EAST BUREAU

AMMAN, Jordan—Once was outlandish. Twice was truly bizarre. But when Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad returned for thirds this week, indulging in yet another vein-bulging screed against Israel, you just knew something else was going on.

And indeed there is, according to Middle East analyst Meir Javedanfar, who is uniquely positioned to explain exactly what lies beneath the bluster.

Born and raised in Tehran, Javedanfar happens also to be both a Jew and, more recently, an Israeli. Thus, he finds himself in the curious position of watching his country threaten the existence of his other country.

"The Iranian president may be a racist maniac. But he is a racist maniac with a very specific agenda. And he is much more sophisticated than many give him credit for," Javedanfar told the Toronto Star.

"Essentially there are three elements at play. Firstly, all these statements are really about Ahmadinejad shoring up his very weak position inside Iran. He needed a scandal, a sort of Wag the Dog scenario, and the most convenient victim was Israel. These outbursts forced Iran's supreme religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to back him. In effect, he was able to turn back to his rivals inside Iran and say, `You see, I am in charge.'

"Second, all these statements — particularly what he said about blaming Europe for the creation of Israel — is about finding a scapegoat for the fact that the (European-led) negotiations over Iran's nuclear aspirations appear to be headed for a breakdown. He is setting up the excuse in advance by suggesting Europe is in the pay of Zionism.

"And third, Ahmadinejad is showing he likes to play to an audience. Consider who was listening each time. The first outburst was in a speech to the Third World, the second was at an Islamic conference in Saudi Arabia. And the third, where he called the Holocaust a myth, came as Iran was hosting a special guest — the leader of Hamas, Khaled Meshaal."

Javedanfar, 32, considers himself "culturally Iranian" and at the same time very much an Israeli, having immigrated to the Jewish homeland after completing his education in England. Thus, he finds himself groaning as other analysts get carried away with deeply held misconceptions about both countries.

Among the myths he would like to dispel is the assumption the Iranian people hate Israel with the same passion demonstrated by their president.

"The truth is Iranians are pretty cool. The great majority are tolerant, open-minded people. I was brought up in the revolutionary education system and the number of people with this kind of anti-Semitic attitude is very low. Nobody is saying `kick the Jews out, eliminate them, transfer them.' "

Javedanfar maintains close friendships in Iran, by email and, more recently, by the wonders of Internet-based telephone software that enables direct conversations between Tel Aviv and Tehran. And he said he feels almost guilty calling his vast network of expat Iranian friends, all of whom are sickened by Ahmadinejad's ravings.

Ahmadinejad's extreme anti-Israeli views are not shared by average Iranians
"My expat friends in England and Canada, some of them very religious Muslims who pray five times a day, are shocked, embarrassed and horrified by what he's saying. They realize how badly Iran's image had been hurt."

As for Israelis, Javedanfar said sober analysis is difficult when the hot button of the Holocaust is pressed. The Iranian president's statement on Wednesday described the World War II slaughter of 6 million Jews as afsane — a Farsi word meaning legend, myth, or folk tale.

"In Israel, the subject of the Holocaust is apart from everything else. When you press that button the emotional sensation overrides all analysis. Ahmadinejad did not crawl out of a cave. He is a leader with a PhD in a secular subject. That's why this has done so much damage."

Javedanfar doubts the Iranian president's outbursts will have much short-term impact beyond the obvious embarrassment, outrage and blanket condemnation from Western governments. Israel's opposition to a nuclear Iran predated Ahmadinejad's arrival on the political scene and will continue regardless, he said.

"Ahmadinejad has begun closing the doors of diplomacy. But Israel's decision on whether or not to attack Iran's nuclear installations will not be based on statements. It will be based on how close they are to building a bomb," he said. "If they are five years away, Israel will not send the planes tomorrow."

Still, Javedanfar is worried about the longer-term implications of Ahmadinejad's revival of anti-Semitic fervour. Unlike many Middle East analysts, he assesses as "absolute zero" the possibility Iranians will rise up and overthrow the conservative ideologues who hold power.

"The worry is that this leadership will initiate a whole new cycle of thinking to teach young Iranians that Israel is a cancer. It is not how Iranians think today, but what happens in 20 years if this sort of leadership endures?" he said. Today's Iran, said Javedanfar, is overwhelmingly preoccupied with a range of enormous problems, none of which is Israel. The big issues are corruption, unemployment, crime and drugs.

A new round of nuclear talks is set for next week between Iran and European mediators. Should they break down once again, the threat of United Nations sanctions appears more than a remote possibility, although UN Security Council veto-holders Russia and China — both major importers of Iranian oil — appear reluctant to take that step.

Javedanfar's view is that sanctions alone aren't likely to yield the desired results. Not unless sanctions also target the wealthiest moderates in the country.

"The best chance of stopping Iran in its nuclear path is for Ahmadinejad to be confronted by people inside the country who have the most to lose," he said.

"The average Iranian is not going to risk getting shot in the street by opposing the government. But there are some Iranians who operate multi-billion-dollar conglomerates that thrive on dealing with the outside world.

"They are the most potent, capable people who can achieve a diplomatic solution. That's why Ahmadinejad had better watch his step. If he gets too wild, they will ultimately face lost business in the millions or even billions. And they'll go after him."

Additional articles by Mitch Potter

December 17, 2005 at 02:11 PM in Iran | Permalink | Top of page | Blog Home