Intelligence

Hurricane exercise predicted storm's wrath in eerie way

But simulation saw 61,290 dead Said water would

surge over levees

RON FOURNIER AND TED BRIDIS
ASSOCIATED PRESS

WASHINGTON—As Hurricane Katrina roared into the Gulf of Mexico, emergency planners pored over maps and charts of a hurricane simulation that projected 61,290 dead and 384,257 injured or sick in a catastrophic flood that would leave swaths of southeast Louisiana uninhabitable for more than a year.

These planners were not involved in the frantic preparations for Katrina. By coincidence, they were working on a year-long project to prepare federal and state officials for a Category 3 hurricane striking New Orleans.

Their fictitious storm eerily foreshadowed the havoc wrought by Category 4 Katrina a few days later, raising questions about whether government leaders did everything possible — as early as possible — to protect New Orleans from a well-documented threat.

"Hurricane Pam" planners predicted a death toll of 61,290, six times what New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin has warned people to expect.

"I pray to God we don't see those numbers," Michael Brown, director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, said in an interview. "My gut is ... we don't. But we just don't know.''

The known Katrina death toll was less than 400 yesterday, but officials expected it to skyrocket once emergency teams combed through 233,000 square kilometres of Gulf Coast debris.

The death toll is just one of the many chilling details in a 412-page report obtained by AP from a government official involved in the Hurricane Pam project. Written in ominous language, the report predicts that:

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Flood waters would surge over levees, creating "a catastrophic mass casualty/mass evacuation" and leaving drainage pumps crippled for up to six months. "It (would) take over one year to re-enter areas most heavily impacted," the report estimated.

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More than 600,000 houses and 6,000 businesses would be affected, more than two-thirds of them destroyed. Nearly a quarter-million children would be out of school. "All 40 medical facilities in the impacted area (would be) isolated and useless," it says.

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Local officials would be quickly overwhelmed with the five-digit death toll, 187,862 people injured and 196,395 falling ill. A half million people would be homeless.

The report calls evacuees "refugees" and says they could be housed at college campuses, military barracks, hotels, travel trailers, recreational vehicles, private homes, cottages, churches, Boy Scout camps and cruise ships.

"Federal support must be provided in a timely manner to save lives, prevent human suffering and mitigate severe damage," the report says. "This may require mobilizing and deploying assets before they are requested via normal (National Response Plan) protocols."

Under FEMA's direction, federal and state officials began working on the $1 million (U.S.) Hurricane Pam project in July 2004, when 270 experts gathered in Baton Rouge, La., for an eight-day simulation. The exercise used a mock hurricane that produced more than 50 centimetres of rain and 14 tornadoes — slamming directly into New Orleans.

The experts completed their first draft report in December, 2004. A follow-up workshop on potential medical needs took place in Carville, La., Aug. 23-24.

The team produced an update on dealing with the dead and injured, and submitted it to FEMA's headquarters in Washington on Sept. 3. By then, Katrina had hit and the Bush administration, state and city officials were under heavy criticism for a sluggish response.

September 10, 2005 at 06:34 PM in World affairs | Permalink | Top of page | Blog Home