Intelligence

Left or Right? Germany set for debate

The Scotsman - Top Stories - Left or Right? Germany set for debate

ALLAN HALL
IN BERLIN

GERHARD Schröder, the German chancellor, was last night set to go head-to-head in a live television debate with Angela Merkel, the opposition leader widely expected to unseat him in the country's general election in two weeks time.

Latest polls suggest Ms Merkel has an almost unassailable 12-percentage point lead over Mr Schröder and his red-green coalition that has presided over economic stagnation, higher taxes, accelerating unemployment and a general malaise that has turned the locomotive of Europe into its broken engine.

Mr Schröder was forced to call an early election when in May his left-of-centre Social Democrat party lost control of North Rhine-Westphalia, a state that had been ruled by his party for nearly 40 years.

It was lost in a landslide to Ms Merkel's conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), because of the lacklustre economy and stinging cutbacks that Mr Schröder embarked upon to save the welfare state itself.

Ms Merkel offers no magic wand to cure Germany's ills, but last night she was expected to spell out some Thatcherite policies that she hopes will connect with a hurting population.

The 51-year-old, from the former communist east, will have little room for error in her only head-to-head clash with Mr Schröder, which is expected to be watched by more than 15 million households.

Any slip-ups could swing support to Mr Schröder's party, denying her a parliamentary majority with the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) and forcing her CDU into a "grand coalition" with the Social Democrats - with huge implications for German economic policy.

"A majority for the Union [CDU] and FDP is by no means guaranteed," Manfred Guellner, of the pollsters Forsa, told the Bild am Sonntag newspaper.

"This TV debate is unlikely to have as much impact as in 2002, when personality issues were more important. But it could increase the likelihood of a grand coalition."

Although coalitions between the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats exist at the state level, an alliance between the traditional rivals has occurred only once nationally, between 1966 and 1969.

Financial markets fear such an alliance would lead to gridlock, hindering reforms that economists say are crucial to boost German growth and cut unemployment, currently near post-war highs. A coalition of the two biggest parties could also give a bigger voice to smaller fringe parties.

Ms Merkel has promised profound changes on the economic front, while Mr Schröder plays to the fear of change.

Radical change in this country came previously on the heels of two world wars, and the population is used to embracing the familiar over the unknown.

But Ms Merkel can afford to offer the long view if the poll numbers stay with her.

She is poised to become the first woman chancellor in Germany's history, sitting in the seat first occupied by Bismark.

"Schröder will smile more and shine more. Merkel will present arguments," said Guido Westerwelle, of the FDP. "People must decide which is more important."

September 5, 2005 at 12:56 AM in Europe | Permalink | Top of page | Blog Home