Intelligence

Analysis: Lebanese 'Muppets' in disarray

Jerusalem Post | Breaking News from Israel, the Middle East and the Jewish World

ORLY HALPERN, THE JERUSALEM POST Feb. 16, 2005

On the day of the car bombing that killed former prime minister, Rafik Hariri, the Lebanese Daily Star printed an opinion piece titled, "Lebanon's politicians head for 'Muppet' status."

"The Lebanese political scene is quickly turning into a Muppet show performance, where well-rehearsed actors accuse each other of being puppets on strings, choreographed by foreign powers," read the opening sentence. The writer was referring to the back-and-forth banter between the pro-Syrian government and the opposition, which wants a Syrian withdrawal.

But the bomb that exploded hours after the newspapers were delivered also shattered the "puppet play" in which all the actors knew their "roles." The Lebanese people, who have for the most part tried to avoid getting into any situation that could spiral them back into a civil war, are now acting in defiance.

People are setting out thousands of candles in both Muslim and Christian neighborhoods of the capital for Hariri, "who died as a martyr for the independence of Lebanon."

More significantly, the fragmented opposition, which over the past two months has tried to become more united and more vocal, has become just that overnight.

Last week saw the height of the opposition's gall so far when it called vocally for a Syrian withdrawal. Its calls were so provocative that Lebanese Prime Minister Omar Karameh warned them that they have "crossed the red lines." But from the point of view of the opposition, the assassination of one of its key leaders crossed all its red lines.

Hours after the bombing opposition members met at Hariri's house and left declaring the Lebanese and Syrian governments responsible for the assassination. Sources say that the different opposition groups – Aoun, Qornet Shehwan, Jumblatt, Gemayel, the Democratic Left and independents – are all collaborating to plan the next move.

They had already made a significant start last December, forming the largest multi-sectarian bloc in the history of Lebanon three months after a constitutional amendment was made allowing the pro-Syrian president to extend his term for another three years.

The bloc was headed by Druse overlord and MP Walid Jumblat.

Still, some people fear that the chaos created by Hariri's death may cause the country to spiral into civil war once again.

A Syrian analyst told The Jerusalem Post that Damascus is unmoved by the bombing. "There is a disconnect there that is quite remarkable. The only intelligent thing to do now would be to start an immediate withdrawal from Lebanon," said the source. "But knowing Syria's leaders, this is unlikely to happen.

"Reasonableness, flexibility or pragmatism are no longer attributes of Syria's decaying regime," he said. "If indeed they had ever been."

February 17, 2005 at 08:46 AM in Middle East | Permalink | Top of page | Blog Home