Intelligence

Analysis: sophisticated attempt to create chaos

Times Online - World

By Hala Jaber of the Sunday Times

When the initial emotions of anger and shock subside in Lebanon following the brutal but sophisticated assassination of the former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, the country will demand to know who was behind the murder of the man who rebuilt Lebanon from the ashes of civil war.

Although it is too early to answer such a question with any certainty, the fact remains that in Lebanon the immediate finger of accusation will fall on two main parties.

For the pro-Syrian camp – those opposed to the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon despite a recent UN resolution spearheaded by the United States and France to that effect – Israel will be the main suspect.

Pro-Syrians will accuse Israel of wanting further to demolish Syria’s reputation and interests in Lebanon in a bid to have Washington take further punitive steps, or even actions, against Damascus, which it accuses of supporting what it deems as “Hezbollah terrorism”.

Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon would also mean a distance between Syrian troops and Israeli borders.

But for the anti-Syrian camp – politicians’ coalitions and parties in Lebanon calling for Syria’s withdrawal and an end to its meddling in the country’s internal affairs – Syria will be the main suspect. They will blame Syria of wanting to destabilise the country as a justification to maintain its presence in Lebanon.

Lebanon has been a chess board for many intelligence services in the Middle East and well beyond. Before the culprit behind the assassination is finally pinpointed, conspiracy theories for which the Lebanese are renown for - ranging from the unimaginable and fantasy to the feasible - will be rife in the country over the coming weeks.

Hariri was strongly opposed to Syria’s role and the pro-Syrian government and quit as Prime Minister in October last year when he was informed by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad that Damascus wanted to extend the term of office of his rival Emile Lahoud for a further three years.

He fell in and out of favour with Damascus over the years and recently joined calls by the opposition for Syrian troops to quit Lebanon in the run-up to a general election in May.

What is clear, though, is that the method of assassination is too sophisticated for any one local group in Lebanon.

“The sophistication and type of the explosives and the inside knowledge of his route all confirm that an outside power over and beyond Lebanon is involved in his assassination,” a Beirut security analyst said.

Rime Allaf, a Middle East analyst at London's Royal Institute of International Affairs, said it was the work of an intelligence service rather than a small group.

"Whoever did it aimed at creating chaos in Lebanon and pointing the finger at Syria. I can't believe anyone in Syria could be naive enough to think that this would help them."

She added: "The Israelis have been thought responsible for a number of assassinations in Lebanon, but why would they want to stir things up now? The Syrians must be very worried."

A previously unknown Islamist group said in a videotape aired by Al Jazeera television that it carried out the attack because of Hariri's support for the Saudi government. The claim could not be confirmed

Hariri’s motorcade and limousines are known to be equipped with state-of-the-art radar and jamming devices that generally block mobile phones and devices within a 500-metre radius to prevent assassination attempts by radio-controlled bombs.

The security analyst insists that “whoever designed the explosives had overcome Hariri’s own sophisticated devices”. This pointed to technological knowledge that suggested “the involvement of bigger powers on the outside” of Lebanon.

Hariri’s assassination, reminiscent of Lebanon’s dark days of civil war, comes at a time of intense back-stabbing and internal political conflict regarding Syria’s relationship with Lebanon. It comes a few month after a similar assassination of another opponent – Marwan Hamade - of Syrian presence in Lebanon, in which his driver was killed.

February 14, 2005 at 06:21 PM in Middle East | Permalink | Top of page | Blog Home