Intelligence

FUJIMORI-CERPA, A TEST OF WILLS

ENN Peru Hostage Incident Reports; Assault Successful

By Steve Macko, ERRI Analyst
LIMA (ENN) - Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori is described as the iron man in Peruvian politics. But in the match of wills between Fujimori and Tupac Amaru Revolutionary Movement (MRTA) leader Nestor Cerpa -- Fujimori may have met his match.

Peruvian psychologists are said to describe both men as stubborn, patient, egotistical and manipulative. In this battle of wills to determine the fate of 72 hostages that are still being held in the residence of the Japanese ambassador, neither Cerpa or Fujimori has blinked. And the copy of a recent psychological profile of Cerpa is said not to bode well for a peaceful end to the hostage crisis that is now into its fifth month.

In a confidential psychological profile that was dated 21 February, police psychologists said, "Cerpa will be a difficult person to negotiate with while he feels in control, but he would be totally unpredictable if he is ever put in a position of weakness."

Cerpa is still demanding the release of jailed MRTA comrades in exchange for the hostages. Negotiations between the terrorists and the Peruvian government have been stalled since 12 March.

Doctor Cesar Rodriguez, a prominent Peruvian psychologist said, "Fujimori has a very rigid and authoritarian character and in that way he and Cerpa are extremely similar. Neither man wants to blink first." The doctor added, "Cerpa feels he is more experienced and more prepared than Fujimori and that he has absolutely nothing to lose."

Raul Gonzalez, an expert on Peruvian guerrilla groups and who has written extensively about them, says, "He (Cerpa) knew how to get in, but he doesn't know how to get out. He doesn't know how to negotiate at the political level."

The police psychologists say that Cerpa is very aware of his place in history and is determined to come away from this situation as a hero -- preferably a live hero. But is willing to become a martyr for the cause should that become necessary. The police profile said of Cerpa: "He is not a person to take a step back for fear of losing ground. He's prepared to die for his beliefs."

With negotiations stalled and no hostages being released for quite some time now -- ERRI counterterrorism analysts say that the ingredients for an assault on the residence are there. It's only a matter of the Japanese government giving the Peruvian government the green light to go ahead. The Peruvian authorities are most likely chomping at the bit to launch an assault, but the residence, technically, is Japanese soil and it is not certain if Japanese officials have the will to give approval to an assault which would be, at best, considered highly risky under the current circumstances.

August 1, 2004 at 11:08 PM in SAS, Terror groups | Permalink | TrackBack (237) | Top of page | Blog Home