Intelligence

Popular Putin still a cipher to Russians

ajc.com | News | Popular Putin still a cipher to Russians

Former KBG chief has 80% backing as election nears
By REBECCA SANTANA
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

MOSCOW -- Russian President Vladimir Putin has become famous for his Mona Lisa half-smile -- a slight lifting of the lips that never breaks into a grin and seems to mask some inner thoughts.

Even after his four years in office, many still wonder what's behind the smile. As his approval ratings hover at about 80 percent and he seeks a second term in the March 14 presidential election, they're also curious about what he has in store for the next four years.

Some see an authoritarian leader bent on consolidating power, silencing critics, plowing ahead with a vicious war in Russia's breakaway region of Chechnya, and essentially killing Russian democracy.

"He has no concept other than the absolutely unprincipled tactic: to stay in power at any costs," said Yelena Tregubova, who wrote a kiss-and-tell book about her years in the Kremlin press corps.

But others see a president who inherited a country in chaos from Boris Yeltsin, one with Chechen fighters on its southern border, crumbling infrastructure, a lower international reputation, and rich businessmen calling the shots. They believe Putin guided Russia to stability and will turn it into a prosperous democracy.

If Russia is becoming more democratic, it's surprising it is happening under the leadership of a man who worked in the KGB. Putin served for 16 years in the Russian intelligence agency and was so eager to join that, as recounted in his autobiography, "First Person," he volunteered while still in high school. He left the KGB when the Soviet Union collapsed, working briefly as a taxi driver before moving into government work and rising to head the FSB, the successor to the KGB. After serving as prime minister, he became president when the ailing Yeltsin stepped down.

He won support with his tough stance on Chechnya, and fans say he stopped a full-scale war in the North Caucasus by Chechen fighters aided and funded by Islamic militants.

But four years later, the war is no closer to resolution. No major Chechen rebel leaders have been captured. And rebel-backed suicide bomb attacks, even in the heart of Moscow, have killed civilians.

One of Putin's first tasks as president was to consolidate power. Under Yeltsin, bosses of regional territories had become independent to the point of refusing to pay taxes to Moscow. Putin stripped away their immunity from prosecution and cut the old bosses out of the loop by creating seven supergovernors directly responsible to him.

He also began a crusade against so-called oligarchs, leading businessmen who became wealthy through murky privatization deals in the mid-'90s. During the Yeltsin years, they used money to wield political power. But under Putin most became law-abiding taxpayers. Those who didn't went into exile.

But this year, the anti-oligarch campaign took an alarming turn. The Kremlin launched an attack against Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Russia's richest man, who had been lauded for bringing his oil company, Yukos, up to Western standards of accountability and transparency and for helping Russia clean up its image abroad. He was arrested on charges of tax evasion and fraud.

The arrest has worried international investors, who wonder whether there will be attacks on other businesses and oligarchs. It also provided Putin's critics with a perfect example of how, in their view, he uses the legal system and other "administrative resources" to crush political opposition. Khodorkovsky had been funding opposition parties.

Sergei Markov, a pro-Kremlin political analyst, said Putin and his supporters saw Khodorkovsky as a threat to them and the country.

Describing the mind-set of Putin and his inner circle, Markov said they believe "this is a guy who is a problem for the country. These people took property, and now they want to take power and destroy our country."

The Russian president also sought to rein in the media, specifically by bringing all national TV stations under Kremlin control. The Chechen war, the Khodorkovsky campaign and Putin's political opponents are all taboo subjects on these stations.

"There is not a single chief editor left in Moscow who would refuse a telephone request by . . . presidential press secretary [Alexei] Gromov not to publish a story," Tregubova said.

But these criticisms don't seem to affect Putin's popularity with the people. Some have called him the "Teflon President" for his ability to emerge with his popularity intact from catastrophes such as the 2002 hostage crisis in Moscow, in which at least 129 people died during a bungled rescue, or the sinking of the Russian navy's Kursk submarine in 2000.

Putin has also been lucky. In 1998, before he came to office, oil prices hovered at around $13 a barrel. But for most of his term, prices have been in the high 20s.

For Russia, whose economy is based on oil and natural gas exports, this means that the government has been able to pay pensions and wages on time, as well as make loan payments to international creditors.

Economic analysts credit Putin with helping the economy along by passing much needed reforms such as allowing land to be bought and sold for the first time since the czars ruled.

With Putin almost sure to win a second term, Russians are wondering: What next?

Both his critics and his admirers agree that Putin would like to continue with his economic reforms, which are geared toward weaning the country off its dependence on revenues from oil and natural gas exports.

But to make Russia more efficient and investor-friendly -- not to mention a better place to live -- he'll face some big obstacles, such as ridding the country of corruption and creating independent rule of law.

On the question of strengthening democracy, the jury is still out.

December 31, 2003 at 03:09 AM in Russia | Permalink | Top of page | Blog Home