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UK's peak population is forecast to be 65m - but too few will be working

Guardian Unlimited | Special reports | UK's peak population is forecast to be 65m - but too few will be working

John Carvel, social affairs editor
Friday December 19, 2003
The Guardian

The UK population will increase more rapidly than previously expected and peak at more than 65 million in 2051, according to forecasts yesterday from the government.
But almost all the growth will be among older people and the working-age population will start to decline within the next 20 years, leaving the country increasingly dependent on immigrants to maintain its economic vitality.

The projections - based on higher estimates of life expectancy agreed by the four chief statisticians for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland - were seized on by Beverley Hughes, the Home Office minister, as justification for a more welcoming approach to inward migration.

"Immigration is one part of ensuring the continued success of the UK economy and supporting an ageing population. No modern economy can afford to be anti-immigration," she said.

The UK population is predicted to increase by 5.6 million to 64.8 million in 2031. This is 1.2 million more than an estimate last year, which used preliminary information from the 2001 census.

The main reason for the change is a fresh assumption about future life expectancy, adding 18 months to previous estimates. It is now forecast that life expectancy by 2031 will rise to 81 years for men and 84.9 years for women.

More tentatively, the statisticians forecast that the UK population will continue to rise to 65.4 million in 2051, before declining gradually to 64.8 million in 2071.

But this overall picture masks different patterns in the constituent countries of the UK. The population of Scotland is expected to decline continuously from 5 million in 2002 to 4.5 million in 2041. The numbers in Wales and Northern Ireland are projected to peak in 2031 at 3.1 million and 1.8 million respectively. Implicit in these forecasts is a huge change in generational patterns. The number of children under 16 is projected to fall by 7.4% from 11.8 million in 2002 to just below 11 million in 2014. It will then rise slowly until the late 2020s when it looks likely to stabilise below 11.2 million.

The number of people of working age is projected to rise by 3.5% from 36.6 million in 2002 to 37.8 million in 2011. Allowing for the planned change in women's state pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020, the working-age population will increase further to 39.4 million by 2021 and then start to fall. Unless more people stay in employment after the traditional retirement age, the country will lose about 1 million workers over the 10 years to 2031.

The number of people of state pensionable age is projected to increase by 11.9% from 10.9 million in 2002 to 12.2 million in 2011. Allowing for the change in women's state pension age, the pensionable population will then rise more slowly, reaching 12.7 million by 2021. Thereafter growth will accelerate and the number will reach 15.2 million by 2031, eventually peaking at more than 17 million in about 60 years' time.

These projections suggest a big change in the balance between generations. In 2002 there were about 850,000 more children than pensioners. From 2007 pensioners will be in the majority and by 2031 they will exceed the number of children by about 4 million.

Ms Hughes said: "These figures indicate that the UK population is not projected to increase indefinitely. Our policy of a regulated but flexible system of managed, legal migration is right. Industries like the food processing and hospitality sectors who cannot recruit resident workers need migrants to fill vacancies, whilst highly skilled migrants such as engineers and scientists bring new innovations and capital to the UK."

December 30, 2003 at 01:13 AM in UK | Permalink | Top of page | Blog Home