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Top Ten Trends for 2005

RED HERRING | Top Ten Trends for 2005

The risks and rewards of trendspotting.
December 13, 2004 Issue

Laying out technology trends is a treacherous undertaking. Those predictions can end up haunting the luminaries who pronounced them after they’ve proven to be ridiculous. Just consider these: Bill Gates was quoted in 1994 saying, “we’ll have infinite bandwidth in a decade’s time.� And George Gilder proclaimed in the pages of Forbes in 1992, “just as the old integrated circuit made transistor power virtually free, the new all-optical network will make communications power virtually free.

We could go on. But on another level, who can blame the likes of Mr. Gates and Mr. Gilder for daring to dream a little? After all, it’s the entrepreneurial spirit – as much as technical progress – that has propelled not just Silicon Valley, but the entire world over the past twenty years. The ability to take a risk, occasionally even a perverse one, is an inherent part of that spirit. Laying out trends, and banking on them – even if it’s just a little bit of credibility on the line, rather than millions of dollars in venture capital – is rooted deeply into the cultural fabric of the industry. After all, even the most boneheaded trend can stimulate dialogue, trigger the imaginations of tomorrow’s problem solvers, and make life a little better.

It’s in that spirit that we humbly stick our necks out every year to propose Ten Trends that we believe will shape the year to come. Each year, we spend hundreds of hours talking with venture capitalists, brainstorming with technical innovators, and scrutinizing investment research reports. This year, we worked closely with ChangeWave Research and its team of experts to grab key data points for our trends from its technology alliance. We used its surveys of technology users to propel our discussion of how each trend will impact markets, disrupt some of today’s dominant players, and maybe create a few of tomorrow’s industry leaders.

To that end, we’ve delved into a wide range of nascent trends in everything from biotechnology to semiconductors that could shake up the world next year. We’ve also tried to look at this year’s trends – like Internet telephony – and find the surprising ways in which they’ll be implemented. We looked for technologies with innovative capabilities and the potential to redefine not only the way we do things, but how we think about them. For example, the ability of voice-over-IP to destroy today’s concept of distance. Of course, we like to think we’ve attacked these trends with the skepticism that’s always been part of the Red Herring tradition. But in a post-bubble world, it’s important to take the risk of being wrong again. It’s all too easy to resort to waffling as a cheap way to look smart. No thanks. We’ll take our cue from Bill Gates on this one. After all, it’s better to be wrong occasionally if that makes the world, and the one sticking his neck out, a little richer.

This year’s Top 10 Trends:

From speed races to duels

Moore’s Law is challenged as the chip industry changes tactics to avoid a meltdown.

The death of distance

VoIP is cheap, no doubt. What is more interesting is what it can do.

We know who you are

The identity and access management crisis.

Silencing the genes

After the hype, and then the lull, biotechs are making progress in pushing RNAi therapies into real-world treatments and real-deal revenues.

Micro energy, finally?

After heating up great expectations and then missing deadlines, the fuel cell industry could finally hit its stride next year.

Where is that file?

As the storage capacity of personal computers has expanded, innovators see a business opportunity in searching the final frontier – your desktop.

Baby boomers left to their own devices

As an aging population continues to seek the fountain of youth, the medical equipment market promises answers.

The web goes to pieces

Don’t blink – web services just became real.

The U.S takes a 3G thrashing

The next generation in cellular could leave the U.S. even further behind.

Home sweet digital home

Will computer companies or consumer electronics makers own the keys to the wired house?

December 27, 2004 at 12:33 PM in Web/Tech | Permalink | TrackBack (4) | Top of page | Blog Home