Internet Changes Everything

Google, how good are they and will they last?

This milestone for Google is significant for the company, and for the internet. Google have been around only since 1998 - thats six years; a mere wisp of time, in the scheme of business and economic cycles.

Couple of background points, which I will get back to at the end:
- the web (www) as we know it has been with us only since 1992
- many forces promise to change the web as we know it today
- security, phishing, spoofing etc
- demographic change; not internet usage which includes everyone, but internet expecations, which is generational

So when looking at Google, it also worth remembering the old adage that what goes up must come down. The Google premise is pretty flaky if you consider that internet users think they are searching the internet, when in reality, Google are playing back their search criteria based on complex and frequently changing algorithims.

I would bet that the majority of internet users assume a search result is based on a pure "search" of what is out there. Everyone should read this and this... they are a bit obscure the way they are written, but in essence it says that Google will play back to you what they think you want to see. In fairness to them they need an algorithim, because unscrupulous advertisers try to fake the search engine into believing their site is more popular than it really is, and therefore move themselves up in the ranking.

So Google has to ensure some credibility by competing against people trying to beat Google.

Next is the influence of change to the algorithim. While for valid reason to beat cheats, and maximise the results, the fact they change means, a ranking of 9th today, can be much further down tomorrow. The Google algorithim is like the coke recipe, and changes are not public.

The final influence for Google is judgement which is the most non-objective influence. This includes Government influence, with the example of certain French sites excluded at government request.

Search is one arena, where there has to be a better mousetrap. While the logic behind the approach is valid, improved mathmatical formulae is no way to seek information effectively. Then layer over the fact that search results display hasn't changed at all since internet began. There are no more basic looking sites out there, than search engines.

Internet is so new and the players are so new, that more evolution and change is assured. Yahoo and MSN have stated publicly they will go after Google, which brings me back to my background points, security, and demographic expectation. These factors will produce exponentially more demand for better quality in searches and search results. Future users will understand the limits of current searches, and wonder why they cannot find what they are looking for (Grokker is the only novel approach using data visualisation). There will be more change in this arena than any other over the next few years.

February 17, 2004 at 11:26 PM in @ My Views @, Internet evolution, Portals | Permalink | TrackBack (181) | Top of page | Blog Home